According to CSM Worldwide, the market leader in automotive forecasting and market intelligence, Western European car sales in April reached 1.2 million units, an eye-opening decrease of 6.8% in comparison to the same month in 2005. The last sales month that reported a 6.8% drop in sales was January 2003.
In 1Q 2006, sales were strong and posted a 3.5% growth rate year-over-year. In fact, sales in March 2006 reached 1.72 million units, resulting in the strongest March since 2000. Given the strong demand during the first quarter, CSM Worldwide expects 2Q 2006 demand to slow down and realign the sales trend in order to achieve a slight increase by year-end.
As a result, four-month accumulated sales across the region reached 5.16 million units, rising 0.9% year-over-year.
Looking forward, the Western European SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised selling rate) indicates full-year passenger car sales reaching 14.6 million units, a stable increase over last year’s results that were strong during the 2Q and 3Q before losing steam in the final quarter of 2005.
• April sales demand reported disappointing results in the largest markets: France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the United Kingdom. Aggregated demand in the big five markets reported 80.000 fewer units vs. last April, down 7.9%. As a result, four-month accumulated sales are on par in comparison to last year, as sales stagnation settles, slightly down 0.04%.
• Demand in Germany has been increasing since April 2004, despite stumbling toward the end of 2005. However, April 2006 sales decreased 7.9%, balancing strong March sales, up 8% and as a result: year-to-date sales are rising 2.1% over last year. The full-year selling rate projects the market toward 3.45 million units, up 3.3% vs. 2005.
• Sales in Spain dropped 10.5% in April after an unexpected rise of 8.3% in March, contributing toward a negative growth rate of 0.9% year-over-year. The market had been strong since 2Q 2003, and the foreseeable slow down from 4Q 2005 onward is expected to materialise throughout the year. Full-year sales target 1.5 million units, down 1.4% vs. 2005.
• Present-year demand in France had been promising at the start of the year, however April sales dropped 6.7% and year-to-date demand continues to struggle, down 1.8% over last year. Looking beyond the present-day social unrest, 2Q 2006 will prove to be a difficult period in comparison to last year’s 7.2% registered growth over 2003. The full-year selling rate projects the market toward 2.07 million units, up 0.6% vs. 2005.
• The car market in Italy has reported strong demand in 2006. New domestic model launches and high optimism with regards to parliamentary elections have paved the way to recovering vehicle sales. Year-to-date sales continue to increase at 5.0%, despite experiencing a setback in April, down 6.3%. The full-year selling rate suggests the market will report sales of 2.34 million units, confirming an optimistic full year outlook, up 4.2%.
• Lastly, in the UK, car sales continue to experience a steeper downward-cyclical trend in comparison to the region’s larger markets. Sales have clearly slowed since 2Q 2004, posting negative growth rates over eight consecutive quarters following four years of consecutive growth. Car sales slumped 9.1% in April, following an acceptable March that commenced the upgrade of new registration plates. The full-year selling rate projects the market toward 2.24 million units, down 8.3% vs. 2005.
• Other markets reporting positive year-over-year demand are: Belgium (16.7%), Ireland (7.0%), Denmark (6.9%) and the Netherlands (2.6%).
CSM Worldwide (www.csmauto.com) supports more than 450 of the world's top automakers, suppliers and financial organizations with global market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Paris, Sao Paulo, Singapore, Shanghai, Bangalore and Budapest.
