European consumers will increasingly buy vehicles produced in Central or Eastern Europe and not from the traditional vehicle production centers of Germany, France and Italy, according to CSM Worldwide.
CSM Worldwide anticipates the share of European light vehicle production based in Central and Eastern European countries will rise from 18.8 percent in 2004 to 25.6 percent in 2011, a increase of 6.8 percent.
“Global vehicle manufacturers are increasingly taking advantage of production facilities in lower-wage countries,” says Mark Fulthorpe, Director, European Vehicle Forecasts for CSM. “Increased integration of Central and Eastern European economies with their Western counterparts is at the forefront of this shift.”
According to CSM analysis Toyota leads the list of brands shifting production east. By 2011, the share of its Western European production is expected to fall 22% as it expands volume at its locations in countries such as the Czech Republic. Honda is next with a 21 percent shift. Of the traditional European brands, Peugeot tops the list. In 2004 Peugeot had no Central or Eastern European production; by 2008 more than 20 percent of its European production will be located in Central and Eastern European countries. Trnava, Slovakia, where Peugeot will start building the Peugeot 207 will produce half of all European 207s within three years.
“Those choosing to switch production increasingly to Central and Eastern Europe will enjoy a pricing advantage due to the cheaper labor costs,” continues Fulthorpe. “The moves by Asian-based OEMs to shift production to lower-wage countries poses a significant challenge for those badges such as Ford and Opel that currently do not have aggressive plans to move additional production east.”
Central/Eastern European Production Share by Badge
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| Rank | Badge | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Change 2004-2011 |
| 1 | Toyota | 15.2% | 23.1% | 31.8% | 32.9% | 33.1% | 39.1% | 40.5% | 43.0% | 45.2% | 22.2% |
| 2 | Honda | 5.6% | 7.6% | 6.5% | 11.3% | 14.9% | 21.0% | 25.4% | 27.5% | 28.8% | 21.2% |
| 3 | Peugeot | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.1% | 7.8% | 15.4% | 21.3% | 20.5% | 20.6% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| 4 | Suzuki | 76.9% | 83.5% | 90.6% | 92.7% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 16.5% |
| 5 | Audi | 4.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 9.9% | 14.6% | 19.2% | 18.6% | 17.7% | 14.9% | 11.6% |
| 6 | Citroen | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 6.9% | 7.4% | 7.9% | 8.2% | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| 7 | Renault | 11.9% | 14.9% | 16.4% | 15.3% | 17.7% | 19.2% | 20.2% | 20.9% | 20.5% | 5.6% |
| 8 | Opel | 4.6% | 7.4% | 7.7% | 9.6% | 11.9% | 11.0% | 9.8% | 10.3% | 10.9% | 3.5% |
| 9 | VW | 12.5% | 15.2% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 12.5% | 17.1% | 16.7% | 18.5% | 18.3% | 3.1% |
| 10 | Ford | 6.6% | 13.6% | 14.9% | 15.2% | 16.2% | 17.9% | 17.2% | 17.7% | 16.3% | 2.7% |
| 11 | BMW | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 12 | Kia | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | Hyundai | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | Skoda | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | Mazda | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | Nissan | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 17 | Volvo | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 18 | Mercedes | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 19 | Fiat | 27.5% | 40.0% | 43.8% | 36.7% | 33.2% | 32.5% | 35.0% | 36.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| 20 | Seat | 4.3% | 4.5% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | -4.5% |
| Source: CSM Worldwide | |||||||||||
European Wage Environment
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| Rank | Badge | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | Change 2004-2011 |
| 1 | Mazda * | €9.94 | €10.19 | €10.44 | €10.70 | €10.97 | €0.00 | €0.00 | €0.00 | €0.00 | -€10.19 |
| 2 | Honda | €13.68 | €13.71 | €14.14 | €13.76 | €13.54 | €12.94 | €12.56 | €12.50 | €12.55 | -€1.16 |
| 3 | Toyota | €12.39 | €11.65 | €10.85 | €11.04 | €11.28 | €10.87 | €10.96 | €10.91 | €10.78 | -€0.87 |
| 4 | Peugeot | €13.92 | €14.22 | €14.25 | €13.73 | €13.02 | €12.54 | €12.85 | €13.12 | €13.50 | -€0.72 |
| 5 | Audi | €23.63 | €24.43 | €25.15 | €23.84 | €23.21 | €22.55 | €23.16 | €23.92 | €24.90 | €0.47 |
| 6 | Volvo | €19.70 | €20.71 | €20.69 | €20.72 | €20.63 | €21.22 | €21.24 | €21.31 | €21.32 | €0.61 |
| 7 | Suzuki | €4.48 | €4.23 | €3.86 | €3.97 | €3.73 | €3.99 | €4.27 | €4.57 | €4.90 | €0.67 |
| 8 | Hyundai | €1.31 | €1.46 | €1.50 | €1.61 | €1.68 | €1.84 | €2.05 | €2.16 | €2.23 | €0.77 |
| 9 | VW | €19.18 | €19.31 | €20.13 | €20.72 | €21.18 | €20.47 | €19.76 | €19.58 | €20.09 | €0.77 |
| 10 | Renault | €11.88 | €11.84 | €12.03 | €12.33 | €12.36 | €12.54 | €12.62 | €12.81 | €13.16 | €1.32 |
| 11 | Opel | €17.25 | €17.06 | €17.21 | €17.28 | €16.95 | €17.28 | €18.16 | €18.09 | €18.45 | €1.39 |
| 12 | Kia | €1.21 | €1.31 | €1.41 | €1.74 | €2.69 | €2.75 | €2.85 | €2.91 | €2.97 | €1.66 |
| 13 | Citroen | €12.18 | €12.55 | €12.76 | €13.15 | €13.25 | €13.39 | €13.61 | €13.89 | €14.23 | €1.68 |
| 14 | Skoda | €2.91 | €3.08 | €3.31 | €3.53 | €3.78 | €4.04 | €4.32 | €4.62 | €4.95 | €1.87 |
| 15 | Seat | €9.33 | €9.58 | €10.15 | €10.57 | €10.85 | €10.93 | €11.06 | €11.30 | €11.61 | €2.04 |
| 16 | Ford | €18.71 | €17.36 | €18.06 | €18.58 | €18.77 | €18.83 | €19.29 | €19.45 | €19.52 | €2.15 |
| 17 | Fiat | €10.22 | €9.11 | €8.95 | €10.12 | €10.88 | €11.28 | €11.27 | €11.47 | €11.30 | €2.18 |
| 18 | Nissan | €13.72 | €13.91 | €13.82 | €14.25 | €14.79 | €15.07 | €15.47 | €15.83 | €16.17 | €2.25 |
| 19 | BMW | €24.60 | €24.73 | €25.16 | €25.63 | €26.11 | €26.64 | €27.28 | €27.73 | €28.33 | €3.60 |
| 20 | Mercedes | €23.74 | €23.91 | €24.50 | €24.96 | €25.53 | €26.11 | €26.74 | €27.25 | €27.81 | €3.89 |
| Source: CSM Worldwide | |||||||||||
CSM Worldwide (www.csmauto.com) supports more than 350 of the world's top automakers, suppliers and financial organizations with market intelligence and forecasting services. With corporate offices in metro Detroit, CSM Worldwide covers the global automotive environment from London, Frankfurt, Tokyo, Paris, Sao Paulo, Singapore, Shanghai, Bangalore, and Budapest.
