CSM Worldwide, the global automotive forecasting and advisory firm, has increased its 2010 U.S. light vehicle sales forecast from 11.2 to 11.8 million units and said that by the fourth quarter, the seasonally-adjusted annual selling rate (SAAR) could reach 13.6 million units.
The move reflects cautious optimism that we will see gradual improvement in core market fundamentals following the first quarter of next year,” said Joe Barker, Senior Manager North American Vehicle Sales Forecasts. CSM expects unemployment to peak in the first quarter of 2010, then improve slowly throughout the year along with other economic indicators. Household finances and auto lending also are expected to show modest improvement by 3Q10. Consequently, consumer confidence is forecast to strengthen enough to begin driving the industry’s recovery.
Sales of 11.8 million units in 2010 would represent the first year-over-year increase in U.S. light vehicle sales since 2005.
| U.S. Unit Sales | YOY % Change | |
| 2000 | 17.3 | 2.8% |
|
2001 |
17.1 |
-1.2% |
|
2002 |
16.8 |
-1.8% |
|
2003 |
16.6 |
-1.1% |
|
2004 |
16.9 |
1.4% |
|
2005 |
16.9 |
0.4% |
|
2006 |
16.6 |
-2.2% |
|
2007 |
16.1 |
-2.5% |
|
2008 |
13.2 |
-18.2% |
|
2009 F |
10.1 |
-23.3% |
|
2010 F |
11.8 |
16.9% |
Source: CSM Worldwide
Source: CSM Worldwide
CSM’s 2009 U.S. light vehicle sales forecast remains unchanged at 10.1 million units. North American regional demand settings reside at 12.3 million units this year and 14.1 million in 2010. CSM’s sales outlook reconciles with North American production levels of 8.6 and 10.5 million units in 2009 and 2010, respectively.
